The Elephant in the Room
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Episode 406: Alan Oster: What Investors Must Watch Beyond the Headlines

Economic signals shape every property decision — but what happens when the numbers no longer tell the full story?

In this episode, we’re joined by Alan Oster, former Chief Economist at NAB and one of Australia’s most trusted voices in economic forecasting. For over 30 years, Alan guided investors, policymakers, and businesses through cycles using NAB’s Monthly Business Survey and Australian housing market data — insights now shared with the RBA, ABS, and Treasury.

Alan explains why traditional indicators like GDP and unemployment often mislead, and how real-time banking data provides a sharper view of household spending, loan stress, and rental demand. He dives into the housing crisis in Australia, the ongoing rental crisis, the impact of migration on housing supply, land tax pressures, and the productivity slump that continues to shape the Australia property market outlook.

Along the way, Alan also shares practical insights for anyone navigating today’s property market — from the risks of poorly designed housing tax reform to the role of AI and unemployment in shaping future labour markets. He also stresses the importance of skilled migration in driving sustainable growth.

Key Takeaways from This Episode

  • Don’t Rely on Lagging Indicators
     GDP and unemployment tell the story too late. Faster-moving data paints a more accurate picture of economic stress.

  • Real-Time Banking Data Is a Game-Changer
     Household spending and cash flow data reveal trends long before traditional surveys.

  • The Rental Crisis Has Structural Causes
     Land taxes, migration, and tenancy rules are pushing investors out, reducing rental supply at the worst possible time.

  • Debt Isn’t the Whole Story
     Households carry $2 trillion in mortgage debt — but hold nearly $12 trillion in assets, making job security the real risk factor.

  • Policy Fixes Can Backfire
     From rent controls to pre-sale guarantees, Alan warns that poorly designed interventions — including rushed housing tax reform — can shrink supply and destabilise markets.

  • Build-to-Rent Is an Untapped Opportunity
     While build to rent housing in Australia accounts for just 5–10% of supply versus 30% in the US, scaling this model could ease housing pressures.

Alan challenges the doom-and-gloom headlines, pointing out that Australia still has solid fundamentals, but stresses that without productivity reforms, growth will remain sluggish.

Tune in now to hear Alan’s rare, candid perspective on the signals that truly matter for the Australia property market forecast.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Introduction
00:22 – Meet Alan Oster: NAB’s Former Chief Economist
02:01 – Global Headwinds: US Politics, Tariffs & Trade
03:01 – Economics as Psychology: Market Reactions Explained
04:11 – Real-Time Banking Data Changes Forecasting
05:12 – COVID Lessons: Spending Falls by Postcode
06:30 – Hidden Stress: Households, Jobs & Policy Gaps
13:49 – Australia’s Productivity Problem Unpacked
15:35 – AI, Migration & the Future of Work
23:36 – Property Choices: Wealth, Debt & Investor Behaviour
26:10 – Land Taxes and Why Investors Are Selling
27:05 – Migration, Housing Supply & the Rental Crunch
28:22 – State Outlooks: Victoria, Adelaide, NSW & QLD
29:05 – How Banks View Mortgages & Housing Risk
31:45 – Productivity Growth Slows in Australia
33:55 – Policy Fixes: Tax Reform & Build-to-Rent
36:04 – Housing Market Costs, Supply & Gov’t Guarantees
37:34 – Lessons from Past Crises & Recessions
44:04 – Property Dumbo: Alan’s Downsizing Story

About our Guest:

Alan Oster is one of Australia’s most trusted economic forecasters, best known for his 33 years as Chief Economist at NAB. During his tenure, he built NAB’s influential Monthly Business Survey and pioneered the use of real-time banking data to track household and business behaviour — insights now shared with the RBA, ABS, and Treasury.

Before joining NAB in 1992, Alan spent 15 years at Commonwealth Treasury, including four years in Paris as Australia’s representative at the OECD. Recognised as an authority on economic forecasting, monetary policy, and housing demand, he is a sought-after commentator in both public and private circles.

Alan retired from NAB in 2025 but continues to share his expertise, offering a rare blend of sharp economic analysis and practical insights for policymakers, businesses, and property investors alike.

Connect with Lachlan

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Chris Bates