The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 417: Understanding the Forces Shaping the Property Market in 2026

As 2025 comes to a close, conversations about the Australian property market 2026 are once again dominated by bold forecasts and confident predictions. But rather than speculating on where prices might go, this episode focuses on what’s already happening — and how those forces are shaping the next phase of the property cycle in Australia.

Chris Bates and Veronica Morgan unpack why house prices are rising in Australia despite higher interest rates and widespread affordability pressure. With increasing house prices being driven by structurally low supply, cautious sellers, and years of underbuilding, the real constraint remains listings — not demand. Even in markets with elevated activity, buyers continue to struggle to find quality stock, highlighting the disconnect between headline numbers and on-the-ground reality.

The conversation also explores the growing role of investor lending in Australia, alongside renewed first home buyer activity. As incentives bring forward demand, first home buyers and investors increasingly compete in the same price brackets — reshaping what a viable first home buyer strategy for 2026 actually looks like. At the same time, borrowing capacity and the impact of interest rates on property buyers continue to influence where — not whether — people buy.

Chris and Veronica examine how these dynamics differ across buying methods, including private treaty versus auction, and why buyer fatigue doesn’t necessarily signal a weakening market. Instead, it often reflects pent-up demand waiting for clarity — clarity that rarely arrives in real time.

Importantly, this episode reinforces why property should be approached as a long term property investment, not a short-term trade. From understanding the property cycle in Australia to focusing on asset quality over market timing, the discussion centres on long term property investment strategies designed to withstand volatility and support building generational wealth over decades, not years.

If you’re planning a property move in 2026 — whether buying your first home, upgrading, or investing — this is a grounded, reality-based conversation about how the market is actually functioning, and what strategic decision-making looks like in an environment defined by uncertainty.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Introduction: Current State of the Property Market

01:04 – Factors Shaping the Market in 2026

01:48 – Interest Rates and Market Predictions

03:59 – Regional Market Variations

05:58 – Investor and First Home Buyer Dynamics

16:59 – Impact of Development and Zoning Changes

22:54 – Work from Home and Regional Market Trends

25:15 – Helping You Make Better Property Decisions

26:07 – Introduction to Property Moves and Finance

26:22 – Regional Markets Post-COVID

27:14 – Current Market Sentiment and Interest Rates

28:52 – Generational Wealth and Property Ownership

32:00 – Bank Lending and Credit Growth

36:51 – Auction vs. Private Treaty Markets

43:00 – Renovation Trends and Challenges

45:35 – Long-Term Property Investment Strategies

49:48 – Conclusion and Future Episodes

Resources:

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Chris Bates