The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 428: The Policy Shift That Could Reshape Property Prices

Australia’s housing affordability crisis isn’t just about demand or interest rates—it’s about urban planning and the rules that govern what can be built.

In this episode, we unpack how Australian housing policy, zoning reform, and strategic planning reforms are shaping the housing supply crisis. When most inner-city land is capped at two or three storeys, affordability becomes structurally constrained—not because people don’t want density, but because policy often prevents it.

Brendan Coates explains that within 30km of Sydney’s CBD, around 80% of residential land is zoned for three storeys or less—and nearly 90% in Melbourne. Across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, large portions of land are restricted by minimum lot sizes and low height limits. This is why upzoning middle suburbs has become central to the debate. While buyers stretch further out and pay close to $1 million for smaller blocks, established suburbs remain locked into low-density patterns that limit medium density housing and townhouse development.

We examine whether allowing three storey townhouses—the so-called “missing middle”—could meaningfully expand supply. Brendan compares Victoria’s broader reforms with housing policy in NSW, highlighting how different zoning reform approaches may influence feasibility, prices, and political backlash. Global upzoning examples show reform can increase capacity, but NIMBY resistance remains a powerful force in shaping outcomes.

For investors, the critical question is the impact of zoning on property prices. If planning reform expands supply, will house prices fall in Australia—or simply grow more sustainably? Understanding rezoning property strategy, density policy, and the long-term direction of urban planning is essential for navigating what comes next in Australian housing affordability.

Episode Highlights

03:28 — It’s Planning Bans, Not Approval Delays

05:58 — The Real Demand for Missing Middle Housing

09:01 — Melbourne’s Affordability Trade-Off Explained

13:30 — Development Costs and Feasibility Realities

15:31 — The Hidden Zoning Tax on Housing Supply

18:06 — Why Townhouses Beat High-Rise in Suburbs

21:36 — The Economics of Three-Storey Townhouses

24:38 — Land Size, Lot Layouts and Buyer Preferences

26:26 — Property Advice and Strategic Thinking

27:33 — Sydney vs Melbourne: A Zoning Divide

29:01 — NIMBY Politics and the Density Debate

34:02 — Can Builders Deliver More Townhouses?

38:15 — What Global Upzoning Success Looks Like

39:12 — Unlocking Australia’s Locked-Up Suburbs

44:04 — Stamp Duty and Why People Don’t Move

48:45 — The Big Property Lesson from This Debate

49:49 — Final Takeaways and Listener Questions

Links

About the Guest

Brendan Coates is a leading housing and economic policy expert specialising in Australian housing policy and structural reform. His work focuses on planning reform, housing supply, taxation settings and the long-term drivers of housing affordability.

With a strong grounding in economic modelling and public policy, Brendan brings evidence-based analysis to the debate around zoning reform, strategic planning reform, and the feasibility of medium-density housing such as three storey townhouses. His research examines how planning systems shape land scarcity, market outcomes and intergenerational equity.

In this conversation, Brendan offers a measured and data-driven perspective on what it will actually take to address Australia’s housing supply crisis—and what that means for both

Connect with Brendan

Resources:

Chris Bates