The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 433: Why CGT Changes Won’t Solve Australia’s Housing Crisis

Capital gains tax and negative gearing have become central to Australia’s housing debate—often positioned as key levers to improve housing affordability. 

But the relationship between capital gains tax and housing is more complex than it’s often made out to be. At its core, the issue isn’t just tax—it’s how policy settings influence housing supply and investor behaviour.

In this episode, Cameron Kusher, property market analyst and Director at Kusher Consulting, breaks down how capital gains tax in Australia actually works and what potential CGT reform could mean for the market. He explores whether CGT changes will affect housing affordability in any meaningful way, and why tax changes alone are unlikely to deliver real outcomes without addressing the fundamentals of supply.

Cameron also examines the role of property investors in Australia, particularly in the context of the ongoing rental crisis Australia is facing. With rental vacancy rates in Australia remaining tight and population growth accelerating, investor incentives play a critical role in maintaining housing supply. This raises a key question: what happens to the rental market when tax incentives for investment property are reduced, and how does the impact of tax reform on the rental market in Australia actually play out?

The discussion also broadens to housing policy and the limitations of targeting individual mechanisms like negative gearing without considering the full system. From investor incentives and housing supply to the reality of property investment strategies, Cameron highlights why piecemeal reforms often fall short. He also touches on growing concerns such as whether property prices will fall in Australia, and how shifts in policy can redirect capital away from new housing development.

From CGT reform to the unintended consequences of changing investor incentives, this episode unpacks the gap between policy intent and market reality. Listen now to understand how capital gains tax, housing policy, and investor behaviour intersect — and why solving housing affordability requires more than just tax reform.

Episode Highlights

01:20 — Meet Cameron Kusher & His Market Perspective

04:41 — Investors, Rentals & Why Supply Is So Tight

15:52 — Why New Build Incentives Matter More Than Ever

19:41 — Foreign Capital: Help or Housing Distortion?

27:11 — Tax Deductions: What Investors Actually Claim

29:00 — Should Investor Tax Benefits Be Capped?

30:31 — Portfolio Building: Smart Strategy or Risky Hype?

32:42 — Why Incentives Should Focus on New Supply

34:28 — Apartments: The Missing Piece in Supply Fix

36:18 — Developer Costs: What’s Really Holding Builds Back

39:07 — Government Housing: What Are the Real Options?

41:21 — Rate Fears & Falling Confidence in Property

45:45 — Where the Property Market Could Go Next

48:12 — Build Costs and the Supply Feedback Loop

49:26 — Final Thoughts & Key Takeaways for Investors

About the Guests

Cameron Kusher is a highly respected property market analyst with decades of experience interpreting housing data and market trends across Australia. His work focuses on understanding how policy decisions, economic conditions, and demographic shifts influence real-world housing outcomes.

With a background in analysing property cycles and investor behaviour, Cameron brings a practical, evidence-based perspective to complex policy discussions. He is known for cutting through political narratives and focusing on what the data actually shows—particularly when it comes to housing supply, affordability, and the role of investors in the market.

His insights help bridge the gap between policy theory and market reality, making him a trusted voice for investors seeking clarity in an often noisy and opinion-driven space.

Connect with Cameron

Resources:

Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au

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Chris Bates