The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 436: Melbourne Property in 2026: Opportunity or Overhyped?

The Melbourne property market is increasingly being described as one of Australia’s most overlooked opportunities, particularly after several years of softer performance compared with other capitals. But broad narratives can be misleading.

While some buyers see value, others remain cautious, and the reality is that different parts of Melbourne are moving for very different reasons. To understand where the real opportunities may lie, you need to look beyond headlines and into the underlying market dynamics.

In this episode, Jarrod McCabe shares a practical Melbourne real estate development analysis, explaining how buyer behaviour, supply pipelines, and changing sentiment are shaping conditions across the city. We explore why first home buyers Melbourne are becoming more active—particularly in affordable price brackets—and how this demand is influencing segments that had previously lagged. We also discuss how some investors are stepping back while interstate buyers are beginning to look at Melbourne with renewed interest.

A major theme of the conversation is where to buy property in Melbourne and how to think about asset selection in a market that is far from uniform. Jarrod explains why established homes and tightly held stock in selected inner Melbourne suburbs can offer stronger long-term fundamentals than properties in oversupplied locations. We also unpack common property investment mistakes, including buying purely on price, relying on broad market narratives, or overlooking future supply risks. For buyers asking where to buy in Melbourne for investment property, the discussion highlights why location quality, scarcity, and broad owner-occupier appeal matter more than chasing short-term trends.

We also examine the outlook for Melbourne house prices and what drives capital growth in Melbourne in the years ahead. In a flatter market, not every property rises equally, which is why understanding how to choose investment property is so important. Jarrod outlines why land value, scarcity, and multi-buyer appeal remain critical factors in any long term property investment strategy, particularly when confidence is mixed and economic conditions remain uncertain.

Policy settings also play a major role in the current market. From land tax changes to rental reforms and planning shifts, government decisions are influencing investor confidence, housing supply, and buyer behaviour across Victoria. If you’re weighing up whether Melbourne is a genuine opportunity or simply the latest contrarian story, this episode offers the context serious buyers and investors need.

Episode Highlights

02:43 — Costly Melbourne Mistakes Interstate Buyers are Making

05:36 — Why Melbourne Moves in Different Price Quartiles

08:52 — Outer Suburbs Face Major Supply Risks

10:20 — Developer Hotspots, Strata and Hidden Risks

13:16 — What Properties Still Outperform in Melbourne

17:37 — Is There Real Pent-Up Demand in Melbourne?

19:45 — Confidence, Rate Cuts and Buyer Hesitation

22:06 — Taxes, Investor Sentiment and Market Exits

25:25 — Rental Rules and Unintended Consequences

28:47 — Are First Home Buyers Getting Stitched Up?

33:45 — Infrastructure Booms and Buyer Beware Zones

35:48 — Melbourne Livability vs Victoria’s Debt Problem

37:43 — Geelong Hype vs Property Price Reality

40:42 — Regional Markets and Investor Herding Risks

47:30 — Timing the Bottom: Psychology vs Reality

50:51 — Upgrade Opportunities vs Job Uncertainty

53:48 — Final Thoughts and Listener Questions

About the Guests

Jarrod McCabe is Director of Wakelin Property Advisory, one of Melbourne’s most respected independent buyer advocacy firms.

With more than two decades of experience in Melbourne’s inner and middle-ring markets, Jarrod has helped clients navigate multiple market cycles through a disciplined, research-driven approach focused on long-term asset selection.

Known for combining valuation expertise with on-the-ground buyer insights, Jarrod brings a practical view of Melbourne property—cutting through hype to focus on what actually drives performance.

Connect with Jarrod

Resources:

Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au

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Chris Bates