The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 448: Will Investors Really Shift to New Builds?

For years, housing affordability in Australia has sat at the centre of political debate, with one solution repeated time and again: build more homes, tweak the tax settings, and the market will somehow rebalance. 

The assumption is simple—if government policy can encourage more supply, the Australian housing market will cool and first-home buyers will finally get a fairer shot. But if that's true, why do house prices remain so stubbornly high, what really affects property prices, and is the Australian housing crisis really caused by policy alone? 

As the Australian property market continues to wrestle with affordability, investors are left asking whether new builds vs established homes is the real question—or whether the deeper issue is how supply, demand and confidence interact across the market.

In this episode, Veronica Morgan and Chris Bates are joined by respected property data analyst Kent Lardner to challenge some of the most widely accepted narratives in the Australian real estate market. 

Drawing on more than three decades of analysing suburb-level trends, Kent explains why property investors often respond very differently from what policymakers expect, and why the debate over whether it is better to buy a new or established home cannot be separated from broader questions about housing affordability, development feasibility and long-term market performance. Rather than treating new housing as a silver bullet, the conversation explores how the Australian housing market actually behaves when incentives, tax settings and buyer psychology collide.

Kent also examines how housing policy affects property prices and how government policy affects property investors, unpacking the likely impact on rental supply, vacancy rates and long-term wealth creation. The discussion looks at whether encouraging investors into new builds will genuinely increase housing supply or simply intensify demand for existing homes, and whether Australia has become too reliant on mum-and-dad investors to support the rental market Australia depends on. 

Throughout the discussion, Kent challenges listeners to rethink one of the biggest assumptions in Australian property: are investors moving to new builds because they offer better fundamentals, or simply because policy is nudging them in that direction? 

Listen now to discover why new builds vs established homes is about far more than one policy lever, what really drives housing affordability, and why understanding the economics behind property investment is essential if we're serious about creating more affordable homes and a stronger Australian real estate market for future generations.

Episode Highlights

02:20 Will the Budget Really Change Investor Behaviour?

05:37 The Supply Problem Nobody's Talking About

07:03 Are Buyer's Agents Chasing the Wrong Strategy?

12:13 What Happens When Investors Leave the Market?

25:42 Why Listings Don't Tell the Whole Market Story

30:54 The Truth About Investor Demand Right Now

33:02 Why Buyers Disappear in Falling Markets

35:32 Why New Builds Aren't Winning Investors Over

41:21 Which Cities Still Offer the Best Opportunities?

45:21 Where Investor Demand Could Create Future Risks

47:43 Final Thoughts & Your Property Questions Answered

About the Guest

Kent Lardner is one of Australia's most respected property data analysts, bringing more than three decades of experience interpreting housing market trends at both macro and suburb level. Best known for helping investors, researchers and property professionals understand what lies beneath headline statistics, Kent has built a career transforming complex data into practical market intelligence.

Throughout his career, Kent has contributed to some of Australia's most influential property data platforms, including CoreLogic, and has become widely recognised for his expertise in market cycles, housing supply, inventory analysis, rental trends and statistical modelling. His work has helped shape how property professionals assess investment opportunities beyond median prices and broad market averages.

Today, Kent continues his research through Founded, where he analyses housing market dynamics, investor behaviour and emerging trends across Australia. His evidence-based approach and ability to challenge conventional wisdom have made him a trusted voice for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the property market.

Connect with Kent

Resources:

Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au

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Chris Bates