The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 460: How to Read a Changing Property Market

When headlines point to falling property prices, it can sound like the whole country is moving in the same direction. The reality is more complicated. Different regions, suburbs and price segments can behave very differently, which is why understanding Australian property market trends requires looking beyond the national headline.

Gerard Burg, Cotality’s national research lead, joins Veronica Morgan and Chris Bates to examine whether we are at a property market turning point, and what the latest property market data can actually tell buyers and investors about the next phase of the cycle.

Gerard explains why looking at listings, buyer behaviour and market momentum can be more revealing than simply asking whether prices are rising or falling. It is part of the bigger question of how to read the property market when conditions are changing beneath the headline numbers. 

The discussion also moves beyond property prices to inflation, labour markets, energy costs and Australia’s chronic rental shortage. Cotality’s data shows rental listings remain around 46% below their December 2020 peak, highlighting just how constrained rental supply remains.

The Australian property market downturn is not playing out as one uniform national story. This episode looks at the data, affordability pressures, market psychology and economic forces that can help separate genuine signals from the noise.

For anyone trying to understand Australian property market trends, the bigger question is not simply where property prices are today, but what the underlying data says about where the market is heading.

Episode Highlights

00:00 – Why Property Markets Are Moving in Different Directions

09:35 – Listings Rise as Buyers Pull Back

12:14 – Are Rates or the Budget Driving the Downturn?

15:35 – Investors and First Home Buyers Are Pulling Back

19:04 – Why Inflation and Jobs Aren’t Behaving Normally

25:13 – Energy Costs, Inflation and the Housing Squeeze

30:12 – Affordability Is Reshaping the Property Market

35:22 – What the Data Says About Market Fear

38:06 – What Past Property Downturns Can Tell Us

41:08 – The Signals That Could Mark a Market Turn

45:43 – Even Economists Make Emotional Property Decisions

49:01 – Wrap-Up and Listener Questions

About the Guest

Gerard Burg is a national research leader at Cotality, bringing more than two decades of experience as a macroeconomist at NAB to the analysis of Australia’s property market.

His background gives him a perspective that connects property with the broader economy, including interest rates, affordability, labour markets, inflation, migration and consumer behaviour. At Cotality, Gerard has access to detailed property data that allows the team to examine market movements well beyond national and capital-city averages, including trends at suburb and price-segment level.

In this episode, Gerard draws on that data to explain how the current downturn is unfolding, why different parts of the market are behaving very differently, what rising listings and weak buyer activity reveal about market sentiment, and how affordability and investor behaviour could shape both property prices and rental supply.

Connect with Gerard

Resources:

Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au

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Chris Bates