The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 414: Louis Christopher: Are We Heading for a Market Slowdown or Another Surge?

With the Australian property market forecast 2026 shaping into one of the most uncertain outlooks in years, few analysts offer more clarity than Louis Christopher. In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris to break down the insights from his Boom and Bust Report to understand where the market may be heading next.

A major theme of the 2026 outlook is the sharp moderation in population growth. After record surges in previous years, Louis explains why the drop to around 1.4% fundamentally shifts the balance between demand and supply, particularly in areas already under pressure. Combined with rising dwelling completions, this could be the first time in a long while where supply slightly overtakes demand — a factor that may influence vacancy rates Australia-wide.

The conversation also dives into market-specific forecasts. Louis unpacks why the property market Gold Coast remains overvalued despite strong headline performance, and why Darwin property market outlook indicators are pointing in the opposite direction — with record-low listings and new economic activity fuelling strong price growth. These contrasts highlight how uneven the Australian property market in 2026 may become, depending on local conditions, supply pipelines and migration patterns.

We also explore the risks investors often underestimate, including sticky inflation, the rising chance of a 2026 rate hike, and the way vacancy rates Australia could shift if supply continues to build. Louis explains why panic listings behave differently from normal downturns, and how these early signals often reveal why house prices rise even when broader sentiment is uncertain.

Whether you’re navigating buying decisions, portfolio strategy or simply want a grounded view of property market predictions Australia, this episode offers the rigorous, data-driven perspective the market has been missing.

Listen now to understand the forces shaping Australia’s housing market in 2026.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook

01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach

02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions

05:38 – Key Assumptions for 2026

07:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 2026

10:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis

15:14 – Darwin Market Insights

18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings

21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings

23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities

25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends

26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes

28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends

32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience

34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices

37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market Predictions

About the Guest

Louis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.

With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.

Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence, accuracy, and intellectual honesty.

Connect with Louis

Resources:

Chris Bates