The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 415: What’s Really Driving the Crisis? Eliza Owen Cuts Through the Noise

Australia’s housing market is deep in contradiction: record-low Australian housing affordability, lower-priced homes rising faster than the rest of the market, and policies that continue to fuel demand instead of easing it. 

In this episode, we zoom out with Cotality’s Head of Research, Eliza Owen, to unpack the forces reshaping the landscape — from mortgage serviceability pressures to a rental crisis that’s pushing households to spend more than they can reasonably afford. And with the widening gap between median income vs median dwelling price in Australia, it’s clear the system is straining in ways the headlines rarely explain.

Eliza breaks down why the industry continues to rely on “years to save a 20% deposit” as an affordability benchmark when servicing power, not savings, is the real choke point. Even with the 5% deposit scheme expanding access, the 5% deposit scheme’s impact on house prices has been to intensify competition under price caps — pushing first-home buyers further from where they work and live. We also explore how affordability mortgage and mortgage serviceability metrics fail to capture the true pressure on households trying to enter the market.

We dig into the structural mismatch in the homes Australia builds, from oversized dwellings to the undersupply of smaller options, affordable housing and social housing, and emerging models like build-to-rent housing. Falling housing market turnover rates, especially in Sydney, are concentrating market power among wealthier buyers — one reason lower-priced homes are rising faster despite shrinking affordability. Add in the impact of migration on housing and the broader migration and housing supply imbalance, and the picture becomes even more challenging.

We also look at behavioural shifts such as rentvesting, which more Australians are turning to as buying near work becomes unrealistic. And as governments revisit housing tax reform, Eliza explores which levers could meaningfully improve Australian housing affordability — and which simply inflate demand.

This episode cuts through the noise with data, clarity, and context. If you want to understand why the system keeps breaking — and what will actually move the needle — this conversation with Eliza Owen is essential listening.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 — Introduction and Overview of Australia's Housing Market

02:18 — Government Incentives and Their Impact

04:17 — Challenges in Housing Affordability

10:16 — Policy Measures and Their Effects

12:18 — Affordability and Market Trends

17:55 — Turnover Rates and Market Stability

22:20 — The Case for Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax

25:28 — Mismatch in Housing Supply and Demand

28:19 — Challenges in the Rental Market

31:38 — Eliza's Departure and Reflections

34:42 — Global Perspectives on Housing Markets

38:51 — Affordability Metrics and Policy

42:33 — Underquoting and Auction Dynamics

43:36 — Conclusion and Listener Engagement

About the Guest

Eliza Owen is the Head of Research at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), where she leads national market intelligence and economic analysis across Australia’s property sector. Appointed in 2020, she brings more than a decade of expertise in affordability metrics, credit conditions, lending environments, and the economic pressures shaping housing performance.

Eliza has guided industry leaders through some of the most pivotal moments in recent history — from the volatility of COVID-era markets to the rapid rate-hike cycle and today’s affordability crisis. Her work helps governments, banks, and real estate professionals understand the shifting forces impacting buyers, sellers, and renters, using rigorous data to illuminate what’s really happening beneath the headlines.

A sought-after keynote speaker and trusted media commentator, she has presented to thousands across real estate, construction, banking, and finance, translating complex economics into clear, practical insights. Passionate about demystifying housing data, Eliza is recognised for storytelling that cuts through complexity and empowers Australians to make smarter, evidence-based decisions in an increasingly strained housing landscape.

Resources:

Chris Bates